Switch 2 Predicted as the Best Selling Next-Gen Console Despite Not Even Being Out Yet

DFC Intelligence Predicts Nintendo Switch 2 Dominance in Next-Gen Console Market

Market research firm DFC Intelligence forecasts the Nintendo Switch 2 to achieve significant sales success, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year, surpassing all competitors. This prediction, detailed in their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, positions the Switch 2 as the "clear winner" in the next-generation console race.

Projected Sales Figures: 80 Million Units by 2028

DFC Intelligence anticipates Nintendo to lead the console market, with Microsoft and Sony facing challenges. The Switch 2's projected early release (rumored for 2025) and limited initial competition contribute to these optimistic sales projections: 15-17 million units in 2025, escalating to over 80 million by 2028. The report even suggests potential manufacturing constraints due to high demand.

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain in early development stages. DFC Intelligence expects new consoles from these companies by 2028. However, the substantial time gap (unless a surprise release occurs in 2026) will likely solidify the Switch 2's market dominance. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.

The Switch's remarkable success is highlighted by Circana's data, showing its lifetime US sales surpassing those of the PlayStation 2. With over 46.6 million units sold, the Switch is now the second best-selling console in US history, trailing only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is notable despite a reported 3% year-on-year sales decline.

Positive Outlook for the Video Game Industry

DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive picture for the video game industry, projecting sustained growth after a period of decline. David Cole, DFC Intelligence's CEO, states that the industry, having grown over 20 times in three decades, is poised for renewed growth through the end of the decade, starting with a strong 2025.

This positive outlook is driven by anticipated releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI, expected to boost consumer spending. The global gaming audience is projected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027, fueled by the accessibility of handheld gaming and the growth of esports and gaming influencers. This increased engagement is also driving hardware sales across PCs and consoles.