Analysts on Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-order Chaos: 'Unhinged Times' Due to Tariffs

It's been an eventful week for U.S. gamers, marked by a whirlwind of news surrounding the Nintendo Switch 2. The excitement kicked off with the full reveal of the console, showcasing its impressive features and game lineup. However, the joy was short-lived as gamers expressed dismay over the announced $450 price for the system and the steep $80 price tag for Mario Kart Tour. The roller coaster continued this morning when Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders, citing the need to assess the impact of the Trump Administration's sudden and sweeping tariffs on global trade.

We've already covered the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential effects of these new tariffs on the gaming industry as a whole. The burning question now is: what will Nintendo do next? Will the Nintendo Switch 2 become even more expensive when pre-orders eventually open?

Typically, when faced with such industry-related questions, I consult a panel of expert analysts. Although they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a consensus based on evidence and data, which I then report on. I've done this twice this week already. However, this time, something unprecedented happened: every analyst I spoke to was stumped. Their responses were filled with guesses and caveats, emphasizing the current chaotic and unpredictable nature of the situation. This level of uncertainty is something we've never seen before.

With that in mind, here's what the analysts had to say:

Sky-High Switch

The analysts were divided on the issue. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after the initial announcement. However, the delay in pre-orders has changed his perspective. He believes Nintendo may have no choice but to increase prices for the system, games, and accessories. "It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes," he said. "I hope I am wrong, but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't."

Dr. Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, wondering why the company didn't wait for the U.S. to resolve its tariff issues before setting the pricing.

Mat Piscatella, a senior analyst at Circana, echoed the sentiment of unpredictability but leaned towards an increase in game prices, including those from Nintendo. He noted that the tariffs were much higher than anticipated, forcing businesses reliant on international supply chains to reevaluate their pricing strategies. "Some territories and regions globally have historically been subject to higher pricing than other parts of the world when it comes to video games. The US could certainly be joining that group because of these tariffs," he said.

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts that hardware prices will increase due to the tariffs, but believes the impact on software will be limited due to the rise of digital distribution. "If a 20% tariff—or any substantial increase—were to be introduced, it’s unlikely that companies like Nintendo would absorb the additional cost by cutting into their margins," he explained. "In such cases, the burden could shift to consumers in the form of higher retail prices."

Holding the Line

On the other side of the debate, Joost van Dreunen, an NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, believes Nintendo will try hard to avoid raising the price of the Switch 2. He argues that the company's $449.99 pricing already accounts for the volatility from the Trump tariffs. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks," he said. However, he acknowledges that the unpredictable nature of these tariff decisions could force Nintendo to reassess if the trade landscape worsens.

Piers Harding-Rolls, a games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo will be reluctant to change the price after announcing it. He suggests that the company is hoping for a resolution in the coming weeks. "Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now," he said. He warns that a price increase could impact the brand and consumer perception, potentially deterring broader consumers during the crucial first holiday season.

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, a games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He also points out that Nintendo might have been planning to offer cheaper digital editions of games in certain markets to encourage digital purchases. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital," he said. However, the chaotic tariff situation has put Nintendo in a 'wait and see' mode.

Elliott paints a grim picture of the broader impact of these tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He believes the tariffs will lead to a "weaker, poorer nation" with consumers bearing the brunt of the increased costs. "Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," he noted. "And even if companies can afford to switch up their supply chains, who knows which markets will get tariffs next?"

He criticizes the tariffs as detrimental to consumers and the gaming industry, arguing that they fly in the face of core economic principles of international trade. "Policies that lead to higher prices for everyday people amid a cost-of-living crisis are deplorable," he said. "They're bad for gamers and the games business."

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